The urge to save seems to be easing, which means spending is rising. Apparently, however, the vaccine rollout is reducing some of peoples’ fear, as reflected indirectly in the massive buildup of savings that occurred in association with the early-2020 multitrillion dollar federal stimulus program. The count of victims and their families is huge, and the disruption associated with partially closed economies continues to take a toll. In January 2021 there were more than 10.0 million unemployed workers, with some 1.9 million of those in leisure and hospitality.Īmerica still must deal with the economic burden imposed by the novel coronavirus. But for full employment to happen, recovery will have to take place in the hard-hit leisure and hospitality sector. Finally, looking further ahead, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expects the economy to reach full employment in 2022, provided that the Biden stimulus package is approved. Other forecasts discussed in this report agree. In February, the Congressional Budget Office predicted the gap would close by the middle of 2021. I note that the 4.0 percent estimate left a total GDP gap of 2.5 percent between the levels of GDP in December 2020 and December 2019. Although growth in retail sales had been sailing-but weakened-in November and December, there are stronger economic signals including high-paced construction activity (especially in homebuilding), rising industrial production, and 4.0 percent fourth-quarter GDP growth. With a peaceful inauguration now past, a rollout of much-hoped-for virus vaccines now beginning, and stronger signals for the 2021 economy being observed, I feel that America has, in the words of the psalmist, walked “through the valley of the shadow of death.” America has much to celebrate. It was a time of wisdom and foolishness, to put it mildly. Somehow, cooler-head influence emerged and law-abiding Americans put Washington back together in time for a National Guard–protected inauguration. The US Constitution and rule of law prevailed yet once more. Somehow, in spite of all this, world financial markets held steady, testimony to the notion, perhaps, that investors do take a long view of things. In the background that day, the coronavirus was raging more than 400,000 people had died from it since the start of the pandemic, and the economy, understandably, was waxing and waning, yet still performing. It was, sadly, America’s version of the worst of times. The melee disrupted a constitutionally mandated electoral college report on Joe Biden’s victory and led to destruction of some of the Capitol building’s furnishings and features. On one of the more tragic afternoons in the nation’s political history, Americans watched on January 6 as a horde of disgruntled individuals converged on and sacked the nation’s capital, leading to the death of five people. Reflecting on London’s prosperity and Paris’s destructive revolution in 1789, Dickens spoke of the best of times and worst of times, an age of wisdom and one of foolishness, an epoch of belief and of incredulity. As March arrives, reflections on 2021’s first couple months may prompt many to recall the opening lines of Charles Dickens’s A Tale of Two Cities.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |